When experts are wrong, it’s often because they’re experts on an earlier version of the world.

When experts are wrong, it's often because they're experts on an earlier version of the world.

December 2014. If the world were static, we could have monotonically increasing confidence in our beliefs. The more (and more varied) experience a belief survived, the less likely it would be false. Most people implicitly believe something like this about their opinions. And they’re justified in …

 

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